Month: October 2022

There’s “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place” today, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) insisted in a new report, despite legally binding promises made at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference to prevent average temperatures rising by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Uncomfortable truth

“This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us all year, through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.

“We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster.”

Despite Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) promises made by governments in favour of reducing their carbon footprint, pledges made since the last climate summit in Glasgow in 2021 will lead to cuts of less than one per cent of projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions, according to UNEP.

Paltry reductions

This is the equivalent of just 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2, UNEP calculated, adding that only a 45 per cent emissions reduction will limit global warming to 1.5C.

As it stands today, latest data indicates that the world is on track for a temperature rise of between 2.4C and 2.6C by the end of this century.

“In the best-case scenario, full implementation of unconditional NDCs and additional net-zero emissions commitments point to only a 1.8C increase, so there is hope. However, this scenario is not currently credible based on the discrepancy between current emissions, short-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets,” UNEP said.

Fossil fuel-free solution

For the situation to improve, a “large-scale, rapid” and fossil fuel-free shake-up is needed of our “electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems” to cut emissions by 45 per cent to limit global warming to 1.5C, and by 30 per cent to keep average temperature rise to 2C, the UN agency explained.

And although the transformation towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is underway in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings, it needs to move “much faster”, the report concludes.

© WFP/Arete/Ozavogu Abdul

A woman wades through floodwaters in Jakusko, in Yobe State, Nigeria.

It found that electricity supply transformation had made most progress in some countries, amid dramatically reduced renewable electricity prices.

“It is a tall, and some would say impossible order, to reform the global economy and almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but we must try,” said Ms. Andersen. “Every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to species and ecosystems, and to every one of us.”

Food system reform

Rapid and lasting emissions cuts are needed in food production industries too, as this accounts for about a third of greenhouse gases, UNEP continued.

It noted that action in four areas – protection of natural ecosystems, dietary changes, improvements in farm food production and decarbonization of food supply chains – would reduce food system emissions by 2050 to around a third of current levels.

As the latest @UNEP Emissions Gap report makes clear, we are headed for economy-destroying levels of global heating.

We need #ClimateAction on all fronts – and we need it now.

We must close the emissions gap before catastrophe closes in on us all.

The agency’s yearly Greenhouse Gas Bulletin warns of the biggest year-on-year jump in methane concentrations in 2021 since systematic measurements began nearly 40 years ago.

While the reason for the unprecedented increase is still unclear, it seems to be a result of both biological and human-induced processes according to the report.

The increase in carbon dioxide levels from 2020 to 2021 was also larger than the average annual growth rate over the last decade, and according to WMO, the levels continue to rise through 2022.

“[The report] has underlined, once again, the enormous challenge – and the vital necessity – of urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and prevent global temperatures from rising even further in the future,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

IMF/Crispin Rodwell

More electric vehicles on the road will mean less pollution and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

A human hand in the planet’s warming

The report explains that between 1990 and 2021, the warming effect on our climate (known as radiative forcing) by long-lived greenhouse gases (those that stay in the atmosphere) has risen by nearly 50 per cent, mainly fuelled by a CO2 increase.

To be more specific, CO2 concentrations last year reached 415.7 parts per million (ppm), methane 1908 ppm, and nitrous oxide 334.5 ppm.  These values constitute, respectively, 149 per cent, 262 per cent and 124 per cent of pre-industrial levels before human activities started disrupting the natural balance of these gases in the atmosphere.

“The continuing rise in concentrations of the main heat-trapping gases, including the record acceleration in methane levels, shows that we are heading in the wrong direction,” Mr. Talas underscored.

World Bank

Landfills are a major source of methane emissions, and improved management can capture the methane as a clean fuel source as well as reducing health risks. Photo: World Bank/Curt Carnemark

The call to global leaders at COP27

For WMO’s chief, the report highlights the importance to implement without delay the cost-effective strategies already available to tackle methane emissions, as well as to slash CO2 by transforming our industrial, energy and transport systems.

“The needed changes are economically affordable and technically possible. Time is running out,” he reiterated.

The agency hopes that the science included in this Bulletin, and the State of the Global Climate report to be published in the eve of the UN Climate Conference COP27 in Egypt, will help galvanize negotiators into more ambitious action to achieve the Paris Agreement goal to preferably limit global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius.

ADB/Ariel Javellana

Emissions from coal-fired power plants contribute to air pollution in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Understanding the culprits:

WMO warns that as long as emissions continue, global temperature will continue to rise. Given the long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level already observed will persist for decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.

Scientists point out that it is also important to understand that this report is measuring the concentrations of greenhouse gases, meaning what remains in the atmosphere after gases are absorbed by sinks, like the ocean and biosphere, which are not the same as emissions.

• CO2 from fossil fuels

The Bulletin explains that after COVID-related lockdowns in 2020, global CO2 emissions have rebounded, primarily from fossil fuel and cement production.

Of the total emissions from human activities during the 2011–2020 period, about 48 per cent accumulated in the atmosphere, 26 per cent in the ocean and 29% on land.

Experts warn that there is concern that the ability of land ecosystems and oceans to act as sinks may become less effective in future, thus reducing their ability to absorb carbon dioxide and act as a buffer against larger temperature increases. In some parts of the world, previously carbon-absorbing land has started to emit the gas back to the atmosphere.

UNDP China

An aerial view of wetlands in China.

• Methane from possibly biogenic sources

Methane is the second largest contributor to climate change and consists of a diverse mix of overlapping sources and sinks, so it is difficult to quantify emissions by source type, scientists explain.

Since 2007, global methane concentration has been increasing at an accelerating rate. The annual increases in 2020 and 2021 are the largest since systematic registry began in 1983.

However, scientists still don’t know what the causes of this increase are, but some research indicates that a large amount of this methane is coming from “biogenic sources”, such as wetlands and rice paddies.

A possibility explored by the bulletin is called “climate feedback”, meaning that as it gets warmer, organic material decomposes faster in tropical wetlands, increasing emissions.

FAO/Giulio Napolitano

Women of the Batwa community tilling the soil with hoes in preparation for planting potatoes, in Gashikanwa, Burundi.

• Nitrous oxide from biomass burning and fertilizers

Finally, nitrous oxide is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural sources (57 per cent) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 43 per cent), including oceans, soils, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes.

The increase from 2020 to 2021 was slightly higher than that observed from 2019 to 2020, and higher than the average annual growth rate over the past 10 years, WMO underscores.

Currently, WMO is working with the broader community to develop a framework for sustained, internationally coordinated global greenhouse gas monitoring.

The current combined National Determined Contributions (NDCs)—meaning the countries’ national efforts to tackle emissions and mitigate climate change—are leading our planet to at least 2.5 degrees warming, a level deemed catastrophic by scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Increasing instead of decreasing

In 2019, the IPCC indicated that to curb global warming, CO2 emissions needed to be cut by 43 per cent by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, but current climate plans show a 10.6 per cent increase instead.

However, this is an improvement compared to last year’s report, which showed a 13.7 per cent increase by 2030, and a continued raise of emissions after 2030.

“The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change.

“But the science is clear and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement. We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5 degrees Celsius world”, he warned.

Mr. Stiell underscored that national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.

© Unsplash/Ella Ivanescu

Fossil fuel power plants are one of the largest emitters of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

Glimmers of hope

Last year, during the UN Climate Change Conference COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, all countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their climate plans, however, only 24 out of 193 nations submitted updated plans to the UN.

“…It’s disappointing. Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change”, highlighted the UN Climate Change chief.

The good news is that most of the nations who submitted a new plan strengthened their commitments, demonstrating more ambition in addressing climate change, according to the agency, which deemed this fact as a “glimmer of hope”.

More positive trends were found in a second UN Climate Change assessment published on Wednesday looking at long-term net-zero strategies.

62 countries, accounting for 93 per cent of the world’s GDP, 47 per cent of the global population, and around 69 per cent of total energy consumption, have these plans in place.

“This is a strong signal that the world is starting to aim for net-zero emissions”, the agency said.

Nevertheless, experts note that many net-zero targets remain uncertain and postpone into the future critical action that needs to take place now.

Ministry of Justice, Communication and Foreign Affairs, Tuvalu Government

Tuvaluan politician, Simon Kofe, speaks on behalf of Tuvalu in a pre-recorded video for COP26.

A call for global leaders

In less than two weeks, the UN Climate Change Conference COP27 will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and Mr. Stiell called on governments to revisit their climate plans and make them stronger to close the gap between where emissions are heading and where science indicates they should be this decade.

“COP27 is the moment where global leaders can regain momentum on climate change, make the necessary pivot from negotiations to implementation and get moving on the massive transformation that must take place throughout all sectors of society to address the climate emergency,” he said.

Stiell urged national governments to show at the conference how they will put the Paris Agreement to work through legislation, policies and programs, as well as how they will cooperate and provide support for implementation.

He also called for nations to make progress in four priority areas: mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, and finance.